Times of India - China , Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Pakistan... US president Barack Obama ran through the gamut of nations as he articulated another elegant Asia policy speech in Tokyo this week. Conspicuous by its absence was India. Was India not on his radar? Or was it such a close ally that he skipped naming it at a public function? It left New Delhi wondering. Just two days later, bam! He did something even more astonishing by acquiescing in a Chinese demand to let Beijing assume the role of a monitor in South Asia, an area where China is seen by India as part of the problem, not the solution.
As Manmohan Singh heads to Washington this weekend for a state visit with Obama, capping a week of US-Asia engagement, it is becoming increasingly obvious that something is amiss in Indo-US relations . Somewhere, it would appear, the growing mutual faith, fostered by the much-maligned George Bush Jr and Manmohan Singh, seems to be chipping at the edges. The meeting in Washington could make the growing edginess apparent. There will, no doubt, be an accumulation of many small ideas - agriculture , education, technology, climate change, business , counter-terrorism , and so on - which would be cemented by the good personal chemistry between Manmohan Singh and Obama at the summit. But would it all add to the big picture that was emerging between the two biggest democracies of the world?
What is this "big picture" ? The Americans have articulated it thus. In March 2005, the Bush administration's advisor, Philip Zelikow, defined its new policy on South Asia, saying: "( The US' ) goal is to help India become a major world power in the 21st century. We understand fully the implications, including military implications of this statement." Former US ambassador to India, Robert Blackwill recently elaborated on it, "Bush based his transformation of US-India relations on the core strategic principle of democratic India as a key factor in balancing the rise of Chinese power. This was not based on the concept of containing China. Rather, it centered on the idea that the US and India had enormous equities in promoting responsible international policies on the part of China and that deep US-India bilateral cooperation in that respect was in the vital national interests of both countries."
In other words, the US was beginning to see India as a key player in Asia, at par with China; in fact, possibly as a democratic counterweight to an overtly ambitious China. Indo-US relations started on this new path which culminated with the nuclear deal. That was expected to have been the beginning of the game-changing experience. Somewhere it seems the Obama administration doesn't have, or haven't yet developed, a taste for the experience. It's not yet able to see the next stage of the transformation. For, the big picture is ultimately about transforming institutions and mindsets of the administration of the two countries. William Cohen, former US defence secretary, doesn't quite agree. He told Crest: "I think President Obama has a big picture on India, for he decided months ago to host PM Singh for the first official state visit of his presidency. It is well understood in policy circles in Washington, but perhaps not expressed clearly or often enough, that India continues to play a critical role in the stability of South Asia. President Obama is trying to develop relationships on a broad base to promote stability and peace in the world."
Cohen's optimism isn't shared by Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment. Says Tellis: "The Obama administration is not thinking in geopolitical terms." Adds an Indian official: "This administration is taking a regime-centred approach to international politics. That is a structural flaw." As a matter of fact, New Delhi is still to get a handle on the Obama administration's strategic priorities where India is concerned. Says a top Indian official: "We understand America's tactical compulsions. What we don't understand is what is its big strategy."
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China is more complicated than Pakistan or Afghanistan. As it happens, this is China's moment , and both India and the US concede as much. However, what is worrying folks here is whether Obama's Asia tour, especially his statement in China, indicates his desire to wind down the American super-power status in the region . If that were so, China will move to fill in the vacuum not because it's pushy and aggressive but because US would be ceding far too much ground. The alarm at this possibility was in evidence this week as Obama travelled through China.
Many felt Obama went to China "as a profligate spender going to see his banker." And China never let him forget it. Not only were his public events censored, he was the first US president in a while not to get a live broadcast in China. Also the Chinese managed to get a joint statement out of a US president after failing to do so for eight years with George Bush.